To the central content area

The Application of Economic Integrated Model to Appraising GHG Decrement Goal, Strategy, and Economic Impacts on Taiwan

Absrtact
The goal of the study is to construct economic integrated model to appraise the impacts of greenhouse gas decrement strategies on Taiwan economy. So far, the environmental and the energy related researches in Taiwan, mainly have been either top-down approach or bottom-up approach for many years. All have the certain achievements up to now. However, some different results are unavoidably occurred due to the nature of models. If both top-down and the bottom-up models are implemented on the same platform and solved by the same institution, the differences can be reduced. And the research results are more meaningful for the reference of decision making. In the study, we take the Japanese AIM model as the foundation to construct Taiwan AIM model. We implement the global Top-down and the national Material models, and embark a pilot study of Enduse model. Although the research period is too short (only 9 months) to discharge the Enduse model, the study try to construct the Enduse sub-model for Taiwan Electricity sector. In Kyoto Protocol simulation, we find there is no solution from the Enduse model; a huge deduction of CO2 emission in the short period with 0.82% deduction of GDP growth rate from the Global top-down model; and large loss with huge burden on carbon tax from the Material model. The carbon tax enhances the carbon dioxide decrement with an increase in a decreasing rate, therefore the effect would be better when the carbon tax is lower than 2,000 Yuan per metric ton of CO2. And the earlier implements the carbon tax, the better result to discharge the decrement measure. Although the study finds some interesting results, the scale of integrated model is too huge to reach concrete conclusion in the short period. In order to have solid results, it is needed to construct the model step by step in a reasonable time.
Keyword
macroeconomic model, top-down, bottom-up
Open
top